The second Semi Finals for the 2025 edition of the Eurovision Song Contest have just concluded, meaning the lineup for the Grand Final on Saturday night is now complete. Out of the 31 countries competing for the 20 coveted spots, four of them—Iceland, Portugal, Denmark, and Latvia—made the cut despite the bookmakers predicting that they wouldn’t.
Latvia was the least surprising of the four, placing 11 out of 16 in the Semi Final 2 odds with a 55% chance of qualifying. Iceland and Denmark had similar probabilities as each other: Iceland ranked 12 out of 15 in the Semi Final 1 odds with a 41% chance of qualifying, while Denmark ranked 13 out of 16 with a 43% chance. Portugal, on the other hand, came completely out of left field, placing dead last in the Semi Final 1 odds with a measly 14% chance of qualifying.
Reactions to Portugal’s qualification seem to be the most mixed out of all of the unexpected qualifiers. In the Facebook group “Eurovision Song Contest – Fans Club,” many fans have expressed surprise, confusion, and/or outrage over Portugal’s qualification. Some members of the group even suspect that the country only qualified due to televotes from the Portuguese diaspora. Still, at least two other members of the same group both said they are “so happy” that Portugal made it to the final, with the second person writing “Those guys truly deserved it.”
Many fans are elated to see Denmark return to the Grand Final after a four-year NQ streak. Plus, Denmark and Iceland both qualifying alongside Sweden, Finland, and Norway means that all five of the Nordic countries will compete in the Grand Final together for the first time since 2014. In addition, the Baltics are experiencing a repeat of last year when Latvia beat the odds and subsequently brought all three Baltic countries to the Grand Final for the first time since 2015. This will also be the first time in the history of the contest that a song will be performed entirely in Latvian.
Perhaps even more shocking than these unexpected qualifiers, though, are some of the countries that did NOT qualify. Belgium was thought to be a shoo-in for the Grand Final, ranking 6 out of 15 with a massive 88% chance of qualifying. Cyprus was another country that was expected to qualify out of Semi Final 1, though with lower odds at 73%. As for Semi Final 2, Czechia was on the borderline at 9 out of 16 and a 57% chance; however, Australia broke the Top 5 most likely the qualify with a decent 79% chance. For every fan pleased about the four shock qualifiers, there are just as many fans disappointed about the countries who failed to earn a spot in the Grand Final.
How do you think these four underdogs will fare in the Grand Final? Let us know in the comments!
