The Oscars are tomorrow night, and this year it definitely seems like the results could go in many different directions. Some categories seem like locks for sure, while plenty are still up in the air. It’s always exciting to talk about what could win the top prize. What will win? What will you lose? Why? Why not? Here is the breakdown of which movies I predict will or won’t win Best Picture and why.
10. F1
F1 is easily one of the most entertaining movies of the year. It’s loud, exhilarating, and one that looked amazing on the big screen. This is the Top Gun Maverick of 2026. That said, the nomination is the win. The movie dominated the box office, and every year the Academy nominates a movie like this: one that is big and successful but doesn’t really have any chance to win.
9. Bugonia
Emma Stone is an Oscar darling, and it seems that anything she stars in gets nominated. Bugonia is a very interesting movie that relies on its performances. It does have the problem that it’s weird, but somehow not weird enough. It doesn’t really have much of a chance at pulling the big prize.
8. Train Dreams
Train Dreams is a beautiful movie about a man working hard on the land, helping to create a new world at the turn of the century. The movie is shot well and acted well. The main problem here is that the movie doesn’t have a narrative, really, and it’s a quiet movie. Doesn’t really scream “Best Picture.”
7. Frankenstein
Del Toro’s vision is beautiful, and the scale is so big. All the performances are on point here. But there are some people who do not agree with the departures from Mary Shelly’s novel, and the movie is very style over substance. I picture this one getting a decent amount of technical awards, but not Best Picture.
6. The Secret Agent
This movie is sophisticated, tense, and stylish. It is a slow burn that has an emotional narrative. The acting has been talked about more than anything, though, and even though this is a good movie, it is not being talked about enough.
5. Sentimental Value
This is another great movie that is filled with rich themes, strong performances, and a story about grief, relationships, and how we deal with them. Once again, it is a movie where the performances outperform everything else. This has a fairly slim chance of winning Best Picture.
4. Marty Supreme
This movie is chaotic with a fantastic script, but it most likely won’t win Best Picture. Timothy Chalamet has gotten so big that he overshadows the movie. The film is great, but all the press has been on the actor instead of the movie as a whole.
3. Hamnet
This is such a beautiful, captivating story. A movie that just screams Best Picture. The performances are incredible, and the story is captivating. The reason it probably won’t ultimately win, though, is that it is too much of a downer for the Academy. In this day and age, voters don’t seem to want to award a movie that they need multiple tissues for.
2. One Battle After Another
I am probably shooting myself in the foot by not going with my head here, but I have my reasons. This movie has everything to win Best Picture. It is funny, intense, and well-written. It is well acted, and with the times we are living in now, it surely is on topic. There is no reason this movie should not win, except that we are in a new age, and momentum does matter.
1. Sinners
I am going with my heart here and saying that Sinners will win Best Picture at the Oscars. Being a genre film about vampires is a problem, as the Academy doesn’t really give awards to horror films, but Sinners is also so much more. It has everything from the acting to the music, but most of all, it currently has so much momentum. We are also in a time when more crowd-pleasing movies tend to win. The obvious Oscar movie isn’t always the winner.
Who do you think will win? Will you be watching? Let us know in the comments below.
